Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Absolute Risk Prediction
Absolute cancer risk is the probability that an individual with given risk factors and a given age will develop cancer over a defined period of time. In collaboration with investigators in the NCI's Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics (DCEG) and the staff of the Clinical and Translational Epidemiology Branch in the Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences' Epidemiology and Genomics Research Program are developing statistical models to predict the absolute risk of developing specific cancers among average-risk individuals based on their risk and protective factors for cancer. Examples of these factors include race, age, sex, body mass index, family history of cancer, history of tobacco use, use of aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), physical activity, use of hormone replacement therapy, reproductive factors, history of cancer screening, and dietary factors. This research builds on past cancer risk assessment models developed at NCI, including the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (often referred to as the "Gail Model").
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk. These types of models also will be useful for designing future chemoprevention and screening intervention trials in individuals at high risk of specific cancers in the general population.
- Chang J, Huang Y, Wei L, et al. Risk Prediction of Esophageal Squamous-Cell Carcinoma with Common Genetic Variants and Life-Style Factors in Chinese Population. Carcinogenesis. Mar 27 2013.
- Thrift AP, Kendall BJ, Pandeya N, Whiteman DC. A model to determine absolute risk for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Clin Gastroenterol and Hepatol. Feb 2013;11(2):138-144 e132.
- Thrift AP, Kendall BJ, Pandeya N, Vaughan TL, Whiteman DC. A Clinical Risk Prediction Model for Barrett Esophagus. Cancer Prev Res (Phila.). Sep 2012;5(9):1115-1123.
- Etemadi A, Abnet CC, Golozar A, Malekzadeh R, Dawsey SM. Modeling the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and squamous dysplasia in a high risk area in Iran. Arch Iran Med. Jan 2012;15(1):18-21.