Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Absolute Risk Prediction Models
Absolute cancer risk is the probability that an individual with given risk factors and a given age will develop cancer over a defined period of time. Examples of these risk factors include race, age, sex, genetics, body mass index, family history of cancer, history of tobacco use, use of aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), physical activity, use of hormone replacement therapy, reproductive factors, history of cancer screening, and dietary factors.
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk. These types of models also will be useful for designing future chemoprevention and screening intervention trials in individuals at high risk of specific cancers in the general population.
The following risk prediction models are intended primarily for research use and have been peer-reviewed, meaning the methodology and results of these models have been evaluated by qualified scientists and clinicians and published in scientific and medical journals.
- Nomura M, Ito K, Miyakubo M, et al. Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting cancer probability at initial prostate biopsy using the life expectancy - and prostate volume-adjusted biopsy scheme. Prostate Cancer P D. Jun 2012;15(2):202-209.
- Roobol MJ, Zhu X, Schroder FH, et al. A Calculator for Prostate Cancer Risk 4 Years After an Initially Negative Screen: Findings from ERSPC Rotterdam. Eur Urol. Jul 20 2012.
- Williams SB, Salami S, Regan MM, et al. Selective detection of histologically aggressive prostate cancer: an Early Detection Research Network Prediction model to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies with validation in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial. Cancer. May 15 2012;118(10):2651-2658.
- Zheng J, Liu F, Lin X, et al. Predictive performance of prostate cancer risk in Chinese men using 33 reported prostate cancer risk-associated SNPs. Prostate. Apr 2012;72(5):577-583.
- Lindstrom S, Schumacher FR, Cox D, et al. Common Genetic Variants in Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction-Results from the NCI Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3). Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. Mar 2012;21(3):437-44.
- Macinnis RJ, Antoniou AC, Eeles RA, et al. A risk prediction algorithm based on family history and common genetic variants: application to prostate cancer with potential clinical impact. Genet Epidemiol. Sep 2011;35(6):549-556.
- Lilja H, Cronin AM, Dahlin A, et al. Prediction of significant prostate cancer diagnosed 20 to 30 years later with a single measure of prostate-specific antigen at or before age 50. Cancer. Mar 15 2011;117(6):1210-1219.
- Xu J, Sun J, Kader AK, et al. Estimation of absolute risk for prostate cancer using genetic markers and family history. The Prostate. Oct 1 2009;69(14):1565-1572.
- Kranse R, Roobol M, Schroder FH. A graphical device to represent the outcomes of a logistic regression analysis. The Prostate. Nov 1 2008;68(15):1674-1680. (European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer risk calculator)
- Nam RK, Toi A, Klotz LH, et al. Assessing individual risk for prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol. Aug 20 2007;25(24):3582-3588.
- van den Bergh RC, Roobol MJ, Wolters T, van Leeuwen PJ, Schröder FH. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial and European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer risk calculators indicating a positive prostate biopsy: a comparison. BJU Int. 2008 Aug 18.
- Nam RK, Toi A, Klotz LH, Trachtenberg J, Jewett MA, Loblaw A, Pond GR, Emami M, Sugar L, Sweet J, Narod SA. Nomogram prediction for prostate cancer and aggressive prostate cancer at time of biopsy: utilizing all risk factors and tumor markers for prostate cancer. Can J Urol. 2006 Apr;13 Suppl 2:2-10.
- Thompson IM, Ankerst DP, Chi C, Goodman PJ, Tangen CM, Lucia MS, Feng Z, Parnes HL, Coltman CA Jr. Assessing prostate cancer risk: results from the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2006 Apr 19;98(8):529-34.
- Ohori M, Swindle P. Nomograms and instruments for the initial prostate evaluation: the ability to estimate the likelihood of identifying prostate cancer. Semin Urol Oncol. 2002 May;20(2):116-22.
- Eastham JA, May R, Robertson JL, Sartor O, Kattan MW. Development of a nomogram that predicts the probability of a positive prostate biopsy in men with an abnormal digital rectal examination and a prostate-specific antigen between 0 and 4 ng/mL. Urology. 1999 Oct;54(4):709-13.
- Bruner DW, Baffoe-Bonnie A, Miller S, Diefenbach M, Tricoli JV, Daly M, Pinover W, Grumet SC, Stofey J, Ross E, Raysor S, Balshem A, Malick J, Engstrom P, Hanks GE, Mirchandani I. Prostate cancer risk assessment program. A model for the early detection of prostate cancer. Oncology (Williston Park). 1999 Mar;13(3):325-34; discussion 337-9, 343-4 pas.
- Optenberg SA, Clark JY, Brawer MK, Thompson IM, Stein CR, Friedrichs P. Development of a decision-making tool to predict risk of prostate cancer: the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Index (CAPRI) test. Urology. 1997 Nov;50(5):665-72.
Other Online Risk Assessment Tools and Calculators
The following cancer risk assessment tools and calculators may be of use for individuals interested in gaining a greater understanding of their risk of developing cancer but are not intended for research purposes. To the best of our knowledge, these tools and calculators have not been evaluated for publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, and we do not have information about the process used to develop and validate them.