Cancer Risk Prediction Models: A Workshop on Development, Evaluation, and Application
A great deal of research has recently been published or is currently underway to develop risk prediction models to accurately estimate the absolute risk of cancer in average-risk individuals, as well as develop models to estimate genetic susceptibility carrier status in high-risk individuals.
The Cancer Risk Prediction Workshop, held in Washington D.C. on May 20 - 21, 2004, was planned to bring together experts in the emerging field of cancer risk prediction to:
- Identify cancer risk prediction model applications and their usefulness in planning intervention trials, estimating the population burden of disease, creating benefit/risk indices and clinical decision making processes, and designing prevention strategies.
- Discuss the strengths and limitations of cancer risk prediction models in current use and under development.
- Discuss methodological issues relevant to the evaluation, validation, and discrimination of cancer risk prediction models.
- Identify ways to improve current and future cancer risk prediction models, incorporating new clinical, environmental, and genetic data.
- Identify research needs and population data resources for future cancer risk prediction modeling and validation and disseminate this information to the scientific community
For questions regarding meeting content, please contact Dr. Andrew Freedman.
AgendaView Agenda for Day 1
|Thursday, May 20||Topic|
Introduction and Perspectives: Cancer Control and Population Sciences
Director, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute
Introduction and Perspectives: Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
Workshop Overview and Objectives
Session I: Applications of Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Moderator: Andrew Freedman
Clinical Use of Risk Prediction Models
Estimating Population Burden of Disease
Application of Cancer Risk Prediction Models: Intervention Trials
Session II: Cancer Risk and Susceptibility Gene Prediction Models in Use and Development
Oral Presentation followed by Poster Session
A Breast Cancer Prediction Model Incorporating Familial and Personal Risk Factors
Session III: Goals and Issues in the Development of Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Various Purposes
Moderator: Graham Colditz
Panelists: Mitchell Gail, Bernard Rosner, Beverly Rockhill, Colin Begg
Topics to be discussed:
Lessons Learned From Cardiovascular Risk Models: Experience from the Framingham Study
Session IV: Risk Assessment Models for Predicting Cancer Susceptibility Genes and Cancer Risk
Moderator: Daniela Seminara
The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer: updating, validation and predictions
Modifiers of Cancer Risk in BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers: Study Design and Analysis Issues
Susceptibility Prediction in Familial Colon Cancer
Risk Assessment for HNPCC
Genetic Susceptibility Risk Models in Clinical Decision Making
Session V: Preliminary Discussion of Key Objectives and Research Gaps
Moderator: Patricia Hartge
Identify research issues, gaps, priorities, and resources needed to advance the field of cancer risk prediction. Make specific recommendations for implementation.
Breakout Discussion Sessions:
|5:30 p.m.||Poster Session Revisited|
View Agenda for Day 2
|Friday, May 21||Topic|
Session VI: Validation and Evaluation Methodology
Moderator: Susan Hilsenbeck
General Talk on Criteria for Model Assessment
Variability Explained: Calibration, Goodness of Fit, and Unbiased Estimation
Comparing the Accuracy of Prediction Models
Assessment of Prediction Error of Risk Prediction Models
Presentation on Current Population Resources for the Development and Validation of Cancer Risk and Susceptibility Prediction Models
Session VII: Discussion, Summary and Future Research Directions and Wrap-Up
Moderator: Rachel Ballard-Barbash
Commentary summarizing the 2004 Workshop and its recommendations:
- Freedman AN, Seminara D, Gail MH, Hartge P, Colditz GA, Ballard-Barbash R, Pfeiffer RM. Cancer risk prediction models: a workshop on development, evaluation, and application. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2005 May 18;97(10):715-23.
- Andrew Freedman, Ph.D., National Cancer Institute (Co-Chair)
- Ruth Pfeiffer, Ph.D., National Cancer Institute (Co-Chair)
- Rachel Ballard-Barbash, M.D., M.P.H., National Cancer Institute
- Graham Colditz, M.D., Dr.P.H., Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School
- Mitchell Gail, M.D., Ph.D., National Cancer Institute
- Patricia Hartge, Sc.D., National Cancer Institute
- Daniela Seminara, Ph.D., M.P.H., National Cancer Institute
- NCI's Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences
- NCI's Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
- NCI's Office of Women's Health
- DHHS's Office of Women's Health