Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Absolute Risk Prediction Models

Absolute cancer risk is the probability that an individual with given risk factors and a given age will develop cancer over a defined period of time. Examples of these risk factors include race, age, sex, genetics, body mass index, family history of cancer, history of tobacco use, use of aspirin and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), physical activity, use of hormone replacement therapy, reproductive factors, history of cancer screening, and dietary factors.

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk. These types of models also will be useful for designing future chemoprevention and screening intervention trials in individuals at high risk of specific cancers in the general population.

The following risk prediction models are intended primarily for research use and have been peer-reviewed, meaning the methodology and results of these models have been evaluated by qualified scientists and clinicians and published in scientific and medical journals.

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Gene Carrier Status Risk Prediction Models

These models estimate the likelihood of detecting a mutation in a cancer susceptibility gene (e.g., BRCA1 and BRCA2) in a given family or individual.

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Other Online Risk Assessment Tools and Calculators

The following cancer risk assessment tools and calculators may be of use for individuals interested in gaining a greater understanding of their risk of developing cancer but are not intended for research purposes. To the best of our knowledge, these tools and calculators have not been evaluated for publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, and we do not have information about the process used to develop and validate them.

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